Running Baseball Betting Haps

Discussion in 'The Other 29' started by IWMB, Apr 2, 2017.

  1. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Hit on 3 games that went to extras :lol:
  2. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    ca$h money

    payout next friday :sadnana:
  3. DepaulSox
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    DepaulSox Well-Known Member

    That's some wise shit right there.
  4. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    OVERALL RECORD: 1-2
    RUNNING TOTAL: -0.86 Units


    Philadelphia (+163) vs. Washington - 2 units

    Took the rest of the 1st series off due to the day offs, now I can stick with a team through the weekend. Phillies will be home dogs throughout and I think they can take 1.
  5. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

  6. zmz
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    zmz By the Banks of the River Chicago

  7. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    I got scared off the Phils on Saturday because they were favored (-120) and they ended up winning 17-3. Won on Sunday too. Then I didn't look at the schedule on Monday so now I'm waiting til tomorrow to resume.
  8. CaptainBallz
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    CaptainBallz Windowlickin' Good

  9. itsnotrequired
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    itsnotrequired Has Had Sex With His Wife At Least Thrice Can Post in Locked Threads

    i only understand units

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
  10. whitesox901
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    whitesox901 Aubergine Dreams

    Thread sux.
    Cheeses likes this.
  11. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Took the :sox: +140 on Friday, 4 units. #FlyTheArrow

    OVERALL RECORD: 2-3
    RUNNING TOTAL: +2.74 Units

    :sox: +132 vs Yankees - 1 unit

    Don't get swept!
  12. zmz
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    zmz By the Banks of the River Chicago

  13. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    You asked.
    chops likes this.
  14. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    OVERALL RECORD: 2-4
    RUNNING TOTAL: +1.74 Units

    :sox:+168 @ Yankees - 1 unit
  15. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    Can I assume your units are just quarter bets?
  16. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

  17. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    :yawn:

    but still interested i guess
  18. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    #FlyTheArrow

    OVERALL RECORD: 3-4
    RUNNING TOTAL: +3.42 Units


    Throwing a unit on the Crew today in the rubber game, +190.
  19. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    don't like the bet tonight
  20. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Why not? It's the 1st bet of a round, that's great value. If they lose whatever.
  21. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    because you will lose

    i'd probably bet seattle tonight
  22. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    The Brewers are likely to lose, but it's not guaranteed. Fangraphs gives them a 32% shot to win. The pitching matchup does them no favors and the Cubs probably won't lose 5 of 6 at home. But the Brewers are scoring like crazy at the moment and have won 6 of 8. They shouldn't be +190, they only are because it's the Cubs.

    It's a value play - and those are the ones I want to take with the 1st or 2nd bet of a round. Because I don't care if I lose, I only care once I've lost 4 or 5 in a row. So you saying it's bad because I'll lose has no relevance to me.

    I feel like you're still not understanding how profit grinding works. You look at everything too short term. I'm not going to take the Mariners -140, that serves me no purpose. The point is to take advantage of dog lines over time, because they don't lose every game.
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2017
  23. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    I understand what you're doing, but it's not a good way to gamble.

    The best way to gamble is to win, why throw a bet out there if you don't care if you lose, even if you're playing with house money. You don't hit on 19 because you have house money. c'mon

    You know how road dogs +190 fared last season? 2-6, shitty, netting -2.2 units

    Why not just bet the series win line and then hedge your bets from there?
  24. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    [​IMG]

    Like I said, short term thinking. You can't look at the bet as an individual event. I'm playing the system to grind profit over time. So far I'm doing slightly better than my 40% win goal, and am up.

    The house money part is irrelevant. I'm trying to build up a bigger bank roll for football season by playing it smart.

    So 25%. If they have a 32% shot to win, I'm getting value - which is my goal early in a round.
  25. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    play the dogs over the course of a season, and you'll lose.

    every single year

    long term/short term - you want to win, win and win again

    at some point either cash or credit will run out, so why not look at short term, this is sports gambling, not buying a bunch of shares of BAC and waiting for happy days to come while cashing your dividends
  26. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    gay gentleman Brewers should've broken it open in the 6th. Cubs probably about to go ahead

    :lucy:
  27. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    :yes:

    4-3 to the 9th
  28. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Some bullpen

    :kick:
  29. Team Speed
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    Team Speed Fun Bad

    Hit the Chicago moneyline parlay last night. Bulls (+270), Sox (+170), Cubs (-170) paid out ~15:1.

    Makes up and then some for the loss I'll take on betting the Hawks +320 when they went down 0-2. Hawks are now at 8:1 series odds, but can't see myself getting in any deeper on this disaster of a series.
    chops and IWMB like this.
  30. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    Mariners: +$100
    Brewers: -$100

    advantage again: CHOPS
  31. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Except I'd only be up +~$3.00 on the Mariners and the Brewers would've been +$9.75. Can't pretend they're even bets.
  32. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    I guess betting online is different than with a book?

    If I call in 100 on Seattle, I win 100 when they win, lose 140 if they lose.

    Also, I won, you didn't.

    The point of gambling is to win...
  33. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    How is it any different? I wasn't going to bet more than my 1 starting unit.

    I get it. Not going to keep having the same discussion over and over with you. You don't like the strategy. I don't give a fuck.
  34. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    if you bet $5 on the mariners, why wouldn't you win $5?
  35. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

  36. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    :mcnabb: indeed
  37. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Risk $5 = Win $3
    Risk ~$7.50 = Win $5

    When I say bet, I'm talking about the money I'm putting down.
  38. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    So it is different.

    I bet $100 on Seattle, I win $100. I lose $140.

    Computers appear to be different from the local books.
  39. Cheeses
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    Cheeses Depraved Pervert, Wilco Fan Cupcake Mod

  40. SABRSox
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    SABRSox Hollywood Mega-Hunk Bob Balaban Cupcake Mod

    :threadsucks:
    chops likes this.
  41. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    That's so ass backwards to me. If you go to a book in Vegas you hand them your money and that's your bet. No one is going to say "I bet $500" and then hand them $620, right?
  42. zmz
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    zmz By the Banks of the River Chicago

  43. y2chae
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    y2chae Panda

    I don't know what the argument is but I've always read +140 as you win $140 on a $100 bet. So you profit $40.
  44. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    :wrong:

    You get $140 PLUS your $100 back, for $140 profit.
  45. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    Correct, however when I make a bet with my book, I call it in. I don't hand him cash.

    :shrug:
  46. chops
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    chops knows the brett favre of divorce

    No bets in a week?

    :sadnana:
  47. IWMB
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    IWMB Resident Umpire

    Nah, just haven't been posting. Missed the weekend, though.

    Took the Nats +120 on Monday for 2 units - L
    Took them again -120 yesterday for 3.6 units - W

    Back to right where I was before the Brewers loss:

    OVERALL RECORD: 4-6
    RUNNING TOTAL: +3.42 Units

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